MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal to produce 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050 as part of a newly approved industry plan. This target is included in the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal development strategy. In 2024, coal production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government approved this plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, which sets long-term goals for production, exports, and industry growth.
Four potential pathways are detailed in the programme for the coal sector up to 2050. Under the primary scenario, production reaches 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes by 2036, eventually climbing to 662 million tonnes in 2050. The alternative scenarios project lower 2050 outputs, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, Russia also set export benchmarks. The primary scenario forecasts coal exports at 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, rising to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted a 7.2% growth in Russian coal exports during the first eight months of 2026. The plan considers both domestic consumption and international sales.
Production and Export Goals
The government’s plan emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while also developing additional coal resources, with an increased focus on regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which accounted for 48.3% of national production in 2024. The aim is to raise this share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports explored coal reserves exceeding 273 billion tonnes.
The strategy also sets targets for coal processing and extraction techniques. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, made up 58.9% of production, with an expected increase to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining contributed 78.4% of total output in 2024, and the plan envisions this rising to between 82% and 85%. The document additionally addresses productivity improvements, technological advancements, safety measures, and environmental considerations.
Coal Strategy Extends to 2050
Russia’s coal development plan will be implemented in three phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, includes expanding production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will focus on coal usage, processing technology, and regional logistics. The final stage, spanning 2037 to 2050, completes the strategic outlook. The Energy Ministry will oversee progress in collaboration with federal and regional authorities, providing annual reports to the Economic Development Ministry as mandated by the government order.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the updated programme during a government session on September 21. It replaces Russia’s earlier coal industry plan through 2035, approved in 2020. Novak stated that the plan envisions a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with its overall multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains the scenario outlined in the plan, not an unconditional forecast.