MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia intends to boost its annual vehicle production to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035 according to its revamped automotive sector strategy. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this goal on Aug. 31 during a sector development meeting. This projection encompasses both domestically sold vehicles and exports, with a goal of achieving 80% of new-vehicle sales produced locally in the country by 2035.
The Russian authorities approved the updated automotive strategy on Aug. 24, extending the industry’s framework through 2035. At the end of 2025, Russia’s vehicle manufacturing capacity was approximately 3.3 million units annually, yet actual output that year was close to 800,000 units. Capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles during 2024 and 2025, with trucks reaching 35% and buses 43% in the same period.
The envisioned scenario projects that by 2035, production will reach around 2.5 million passenger cars and approximately 170,000 light commercial vehicles, along with 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car manufacturing is expected to be distributed across four or five platforms, while light commercial vehicles would rely on one or two. The same outlook estimates the total new-vehicle market at about 3.2 million units by 2035, with imports making up to 20% of that total.
Production targets encompass all vehicle categories
A secondary scenario presents more modest production and market figures, projecting about 1.69 million units in total by 2035. Under this lower estimate, the new-vehicle market would be around 2.2 million units in 2035. For 2030, the primary scenario estimates the market at roughly 2.4 million units, whereas the secondary scenario predicts approximately 2 million vehicles across all segments.
Part of the revised plan emphasizes powertrain and technological development, with internal-combustion vehicles expected to constitute 67% to 83% of production in 2035 depending on the segment. Electric and hybrid passenger cars should reach a minimum of 25% of Russia’s domestic new passenger-car market by then. The strategy also aims to produce about 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher by 2035, including driver-assistance and digital vehicle systems as key components.
Capacity utilization and localization remain key priorities
Despite the current production levels, Russia’s manufacturing capacity remains significantly larger. In 2025, passenger-car capacity was approximately 2.8 million units, with actual production near 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity reached around 300,000 units, though production was closer to 80,000. Truck capacity was about 130,000 units, and bus capacity stood at roughly 30,000. Additionally, around 4,400 electric powertrain vehicles were produced in 2025, up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy advocates increased use of standardized components and technology across vehicle platforms through 2035, while also setting higher localization and technological independence targets for domestically manufactured vehicles. The plan covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technologies. Its primary scenario combines the goal of 2.8 million annual units with an 80% domestic-market share, with an implementation action plan mandated by the order approving the strategy.
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