ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization forecasts global cereal production in 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the record set last year. Despite this dip, the total is expected to be the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The latest estimate is 3.4 million tonnes below the July projection, with the annual decrease amounting to 61.1 million tonnes, marking the most significant year-on-year reduction since 2018.
Projected global maize output now stands at 1.309 billion tonnes after weaker crop prospects prompted a downward revision. Prolonged summer heat and drought conditions negatively impacted yields in key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also led to smaller downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. However, better-than-expected yields in Argentina and Brazil helped offset some losses, with both nations likely to produce well above the average maize output in 2026.
The world wheat production estimate has increased to 810.7 million tonnes, up 4.2 million from previous forecasts. Improved yield forecasts for Canada and Morocco contributed around 1.5 million tonnes each to this rise. Additionally, projections for Russia and Ukraine were revised upward, although expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom declined due to dry weather conditions. Despite the upward adjustment, global wheat production is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and remains the second-largest crop on record.
Maize setbacks influence global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is expected to reach 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, marking a 1.9% decrease from the revised record achieved in 2025/26. The latest estimate was supported by Myanmar’s strong yields for main crops and improved figures for Sri Lanka. These gains balanced out reductions in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings fell to multi-decade lows.
FAO anticipates total global cereal consumption at 2.965 billion tonnes for 2026/27, a 0.2% rise compared to the previous season. While coarse grain and rice consumption are projected to grow, wheat use is expected to decline from last season’s high levels. World rice utilization is forecast at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Feed demand continues to be vital, including barley consumption in China and maize consumption in the United States.
Stock levels remain historically stable
At the end of 2027, global cereal stocks are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes, slightly below the previous projection by 10.7 million tonnes but 1.8 million tonnes above initial levels. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, compared to 31.9% in the prior season. Wheat reserves are anticipated to increase in Russia and Ukraine, while lower maize and barley inventories have contributed to a reduced overall stock outlook.
Forecasts for global cereal trade in 2026/27 stand at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Nonetheless, this figure remains below the record volume reached in 2025/26. A significant portion of this rise is driven by stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export as much as 39 million tonnes. International rice trade for 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments remaining 1.9% below the 2025 record.